Monday, December 10, 2007

The 4-3 vs. the 3-4 -- Why the Steelers Should Make the Switch in 2008 -- Post 2 of 2

The fabled Steelers D got ripped to shreds last night by the Pats, in a scenario that was first documented by the, yep, New England Patriots way back in 2002. 25 passes in a row by Tom Brady let to a 30-14 win, where the last Steeler TD was in garbage time. Last night Tom Brady threw 33 times in a row -- the result, 34-13, Pats. Since Pittsburgh got exposed by the Pats 5 years ago, little has changed. The Steelers still don't have a dominant pass rush, and thus must take risks to get to the quarterback.

Meanwhile, Tony Dungy runs the Tampa 2, a base defense with a somewhat basic scheme that relies on pressure from the Front 4, allowing 7 players to routinely play coverage. Mike Tomlin, Steeler coach, is a Tampa 2 guy, but in deference to old lion Dick LeBeau (and probably owner Rooney's wishes), the Steelers have stuck with their 3-4 concept this year. In Dungy's defense, players dictate schemes, while in the Steelers defense, schems dicate the players. Here's my argument for why that should change in 2008.

Steelers 2008 Draft Needs: 3-4

3-4 DL depth: currently the Steelers have a quality front 3, Smith Hampton Kiesel. They have one quality backup: Hoke. The steelers need to find 2 3-4 DEs in the draft or FA next year.

3-4 LB depth: Farrior is getting old, Foote is average. Timmons is not a 3-4 OLB, and will probably have to move inside. Woodley has shown flashes, but didn't paly much and is now injured. Haggans is average, J. Harrison is quality, and A. Harrison and A. Frazier are solid backups. Clint Kreiwaldt is only good for STs. At the very least, the Steelers need a pass rushing OLB who can also play well in coverage, which is kind of a funny requirement given how poor the existing Steeler LBs are in coverage.

Secondary: Because of the rules that favor the offense, pass rush becomes more important than coverage. Plus, there are maybe 3 shutdown corners in the league: Charles Woodson, GB; Champ Bailey, Denver; and the Oakland guy with the crazy name. Asante Samuel of NE could be considered too. The Steelers have big, physical corners who are often ineffective in soft zone coverage, as they are asked to play often in the 3-4. The Steelers shouldn't looke for a gamebreaker, but rather look for depth here.

2008 Steelers Draft Needs: 4-3

4-3 DL depth: Kiesel would stay at end, Smith would move inside with Hampton, and Woodley would put his hand down to be a full-time pass rusher. The steelers would need to draft a 4-3 DE and a 4-3 DT, with Hoke as the one quality backup. NOTE: I assume that a 4-3 is easier on the DL, because there are more of them, and they typically have one gap to play rather than 2. Plus, both Hampton and Kiesel can drop weight, which will make them quicker and more effective.

4-3 LB depth: 43 backers are SAM--or strongside linebacker, who is big, physical, and must jam the TE. the MIKE, or middle backer, should be quick and able to flow to the ball (in the Tampa 2 43 he must also be able to cover the deep zone down the field). The WILL, or weakside backer, is set up to be the star--he can roam in space and make plays. In the Steelers 43 system, Haggans plays the SAM, Farrior moves to back him up (he can also back up as MIKE), as he played OLB early in his career. If you want to run the Tampa 2 43, Timmons plays the Mike because of his speed and pass coverage skills. James Harrison must get on the field, but he doesn’t have the range to play a 4-3 Tampa MLB. He may have the skills to play WILL, but I can see a situation where Harrison plays inside and Timmons weakside OLB.

Final Analysis:

In the 43, the Steelers need 2 defensive linemen commonly available in the draft to "plug and play." They also would need a SAM backer and maybe a WILL, but as depth.

In the 34, the Steelers need 2 DEs who must be selected and then forced to add weight and then groomed for the position in 2 years. They also need to find a rarity: the OLB who can rush the passer effectively and play in coverage. They haven't had that player since Joey Porter in 2002.

So, in 2008, you can look for 2 DLs and one LB who can possibly play right away, or two DEs and one OLB that you need to groom for 2 years first. Given the way the game changes from year to year, I don't think the Steelers can afford to go this route again.

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