The Numbers Don't Lie

You have heard me complain time and again about the lack of a Steelers pass rush, which, in my opinion has been exposed time and again since 2002, when the Raiders and Pats blitzed the Steelers with the spread passing game. The Pats threw 25 times in a row at one point during a 30-14 win (really 30-7, the Steelers scored a meaningless TD late in the game). The Pats did the same thing in 2007, except they threw it 33 times in a row. To me, though the worst loss was to Cincy in 2003, I think, when Jon Kitna drove the Bengals to a game-winning TD with less than a minute left. KITNA!!!!!!!!!!

In the Steelers 3-4 defense, the linebackers are supposed to make plays and sacks, while the DL are "two-gappers" charged with occupying blockers. Therefore, you can pretty much make a direct correlation between "poor linebackers" and "poor pass rush" in the Steelers scheme.

The Steelers built the LB core of their Blitzburgh D of the 90s almost completely through the draft:

Greg Lloyd: 6th round, 1987
Levon Kirkland: 2nd round, 1992
Chad Brown: 3rd round, 1993
Jason Gildon: 3rd round, 1994
Earl Holmes: 3rd round, 1996
Mike Vrabel: 3rd round, 1997
Joey Porter: 3rd round, 1999

Only Kevin Greene was a free agent acquisition. Also notice that none of these picks came in the 1st round, and most were in the 3rd.

Everyone knows the draft is a crapshoot, but the Steelers did pretty damn good from 1987 through 2001, picking up Clark Haggans and Kendrell Bell in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Then it went downhill. Maybe we did good in 2007 with Timmons and Woodley, but the jury is still out.

You can't be right all the time. But the draft IS a numbers game. The decline in the effectiveness of the Steelers pass rush (post 2001) roughly correlates to the Steelers' change of emphasis towards drafting for the Linebacker position. Thanks to NFL.com, you can track teams' yearly picks, all the way through their team history.

From 1980 - 1989, the majority of which the Steelers ran the 4-3 (they were the last team to switch to 3-4), the Steelers drafted 17 linebackers. Granted, these were 12 round drafts, so you had the opportunity to pick more players.

However, during the 1990s, which was 12 rounds from 1990 - 1992, 8 rounds in 1993, and 7 rounds from 1994 on, the Steelers drafted, yep, 17 linebackers. This number could be higher, because some players drafted were college DEs.

So how many linebackers have the Steelers drafted from 2000 on? Including college DEs intended for the LB position, through 7 drafts the Steelers picked 7 linebackers. Throw in Year 8 (2007) and you get 9 with Timmons and Woodley. For the Steelers to match their 80s and 90s totals, in 2008 and 2009 they would have to draft 8 LBs out of 14 rounds. Not going to happen, esp. with the need to rebuild the O-line.

I don't count Rookie Free Agent pickups, either; while it is possible to find gems, you are picking through a pretty big pile, mostly of guys not good enough to be drafted.

I guess you get what you pick for.