5 Good Minutes in the UFC

As we previously noted, the British tabloid newspaper The Sun recently published Dana White’s answers to 12 questions posed by Sun readers on everything from Michael Bisping’s future as a Middleweight to the flaws in the 10-point must system for scoring MMA fights.

But what really caught my eye was White's announcement that the UFC is in the process of establishing an official ranking system so that fans can see who is in line for a title shot. According to White, "I said we'd never do that because I figured people would say our rankings are biased. But, when you look around at some of these other rankings that are out there, I think we probably will do our own after all."

While I wouldn’t expect a deeper ranking than Top 5 for each weight class, the announcement does add to the debate that any self-respecting UFC fan loves to engage in. Who’s next in line for a title shot? Who deserves one, even if they aren’t getting one? There are a ton of things to consider for each weight class, so let’s get right to it:

1. Despite the rumor that Werdum is next in line for a title shot in the HW division, there remains serious doubt on how deserved that title shot is, given that he’s just 1-1 in the Octagon. Interestingly enough, the timing of Arlovski’s prolonged contract dispute couldn’t have come at a worse time. When you consider that Couture’s likely out; Cro Cop’s out, Sylvia’s out; a ton of top talent who are coming off losses are out (Vera, Gonzaga, etc.); of the top contenders, only three have consecutive wins (Arlovski, Mir and Kongo). Where does Mir’s win over Lesnar put him in the rankings? Or Kongo’s somewhat lackluster win over Cro Cop? Had he re-signed months ago, Arlovski could have found himself as the #1 Contender in line for a title shot. Despite the lackluster fight against Werdum, he still won—moreover, the last time Arlovski lost to a fighter who wasn’t named Tim Sylvia was March 2002. There might not be a better example as to the ramifications of a prolonged contract dispute than the Arlovski situation.
2. On to the Light Heavyweights: with Jackson/Griffin tied up in the filming of TUF7 until their title fight sometime in July, the rest of the division is left jockeying for position. Of the upcoming fights, the winner of Liddell/Rua seems most likely to get a title shot. It seems unlikely that the winner of Thiago Silva/Rashad Evans would position either fighter to be the #1 Contender without at least one more victory. But what of Wanderlei Silva and Keith Jardine? And why not pit them against one another, given that everyone else is tied up in another fight. With Jardine being no slouch, would the UFC risk a fourth consecutive loss to Silva, or would they instead give him an easier opponent, if not a complete can?
3. The Middleweight picture is interesting in that, should Anderson Silva continue his dominant reign by beating Dan Henderson in March, we’ll likely have to wait until May to see any clarity on who the next #1 Contender is going to be. A win over Hendo would mean Silva’s beaten everybody who currently deserves a title shot (Franklin, Marquardt and Lutter). So the results from the April/May events will be key, with the importance of Okami/Tanner growing by the day. However, if Hendo beats Silva, the field is wide open. Suddenly the winner of Franklin/Lutter, as well as Marquardt, is once again a possibility, as is the winner of Okami/Tanner. Furthermore, could a strong performance from Michael Bisping vs. Charles McCarthy in April have an impact on the title picture?
4. In the Welterweight division, GSP and Serra fight to unify the titles in April. No matter who wins, most think Jon Fitch deserves a title shot, assuming he gets past Chris Wilson in March. This is contrary to Karo Parisyan’s claim that he believes he’s been offered a shot, assuming he gets past Thiago Alves in April. If GSP beats Serra, we can expect a Serra/Hughes fight, while GSP will likely take on either Fitch or Karo. But what if Serra retains his title? Who’s next in line for GSP? Don’t be surprised to see GSP/Karo or even GSP/Marcus Davis. And is it time that we finally start talking about Marcus Davis as a Top 5 contender? An 11-fight win streak is tough to argue with.
5. For the Lightweights, Penn/Sherk happens in May. If Penn wins, all he really wants is GSP at WW, but is that really fair to the lot of LW talent climbing the ranks? Kenny Florian has gone 3-0 since losing the vacant title shot to Sherk, and a win over a game Joe Lauzon could, conceivably, secure a title shot. Roger Huerta is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn’t lost since June 2004. A win over Gray Maynard at Fight Night 13 could put Frankie Edgar into title contention. If Sherk beats Penn, it becomes even murkier, since a Florian/Sherk rematch might be too soon. And I hate to say it, but July isn’t that far away, and then comes the return of Hermes Franca, the former #1 Contender, who’s been sitting out on a steroids suspension.

Regardless of White’s announcement, don’t expect to see official UFC rankings for several months, at best. As White said, “…(I) have no idea when we will get to that, though. I wouldn’t look for any rankings anytime real soon.”