SteelSkins UFC Power Rankings

Since our last SteelSkins UFC Power Rankings, we’ve seen three UFC events: UFC 80 (Jan. 19), UFC Fight Night 12 (Jan. 23) and UFC 81 (Feb. 2). SteelSkins picks for these fights were a very decent 18-7 with 2 “no shows” (i.e., one of the fighters was replaced at the last minute, thus cancelling our prediction). Our best prognosticating came in the Lightweight division, where we scored a 10-1 record.

We were also surprised to hear that the UFC has announced its intention to release official rankings. While we welcome this development—the absence of official rankings was the motivating factor in creating the SteelSkins Power Rankings in the first place—we’ll be surprised if the UFC lists anything more than the Top 5 in each division, like most sites with rankings do (such as Vegas Insider). Even MMA Weekly, which ranks all MMA fighters, regardless of promotion, only ranks the Top 10. In many ways, it’s all speculative after a certain point, but we still prefer the Top 15 so that we can more easily keep our eyes on up-and-comers.

With that, let’s see how all this movement has shaped our Power Rankings.

Heavyweights

“Minotauro” Nogueira outlasted a game Tim Sylvia to win the Interim Heavyweight Title at UFC 81 last Saturday. The win propels Nogueira to the top of the heap and pushes Sylvia, who’s lost two of his last three fights (albeit, both title shots) down a few pegs.

Interestingly enough, this puts Arlovski—in our eyes—right back on top. All of the marketable fighters from Brandon Vera and Heath Herring, to Brock Lesnar (and obviously Tim Sylvia) are coming off losses. Gonzaga’s had back-to-back loses, as has Cro Cop. That leaves these guys:

• Mir has gone 3-2 since his return, with his biggest win being Lesnar, which was about as exciting a debut as we’ve seen since Houston Alexander stomped Keith Jardine. Even though he was submitted, Lesnar is a gorilla, and we’re bumping him up three spots simply because we doubt many fighters have the chin that Mir has and would be able to withstand Lesnar’s punishment. Had Sylvia beaten Nogueira for the title, you might be able to get enough distance on a Mir/Sylvia rematch storyline to grant him a title shot, but that’s stretching it. He’s said himself that he thinks he needs another fight before a title shot should be considered.

• Kongo’s 4-1 in the UFC and on a two-fight win streak including lackluster performances over Cro Cop and Assuerio Silva. He’s one dimensional and at least one fight away. His first opportunity comes next month against Heath Herring at UFC 82 (Mar. 1).

• Werdum—the only one of the three without back-to-back wins—is coming off a win of Gonzaga, after debuting in a lackluster loss to Arlovski. Nogueira already holds a win over Werdum from their PRIDE days. Still, he’s rumored to be getting the title shot. We’ll stick with out gut, which says Werdum is in the 3 spot.

• We know that Arlovski and the UFC have been duking it out in the negotiating room for nearly a year now, and if their decision to put next month’s Arlovski/O’Brien fight on the untelevised undercard is any indication, the UFC isn’t going to budge. The fight is the last on Arlovski’s contract, making him a free agent who, reason would have it, could get a shot at Fedor Emelianenko. Without a contract agreement, the UFC doesn’t want to promote a fighter on his way out of the organization, and their insurance card is that undercard. An Arlovski win would never get airtime no matter how exciting the KO; an Arlovski loss, however, could see airtime. His bad relationship with his employers notwithstanding, with two wins over Werdum and Cruz in his last two fights, A.A. deserves a title shot next, if only because none of the others do.

Looking at the rest of the Top 15, just as we dropped Jake O’Brien from the list due to 12 months of inactivity, we have to put him right back on, with his upcoming fight against Arlovski being finalized. We are dropping Tom Murphy, who can’t seem to catch a break with a scheduled fight, and adding Shane Carwin (8-0), a three-time NCAA Division II All-American who has dominated the Art of War and WEC promotions. All eight of Carwin’s wins are first round stoppages (3 KOs, 5 submissions), with the average length of time at just 72 seconds.

SteelSkins’ record for picking Heavyweight fights this last month was less than stellar, as we went 1-3. Here were the fights, along with our dismal picks:

• Fabricio Werdum def. Gabriel Gonzaga (TKO – strikes) Rnd2 (UFC 80) – Our pick: Gonzaga (decision)
• Antoni Hardonk def. #22 Colin Robinson (TKO – strikes) Rnd1 (UFC 80) – Our pick: Robinson (TKO)
• Minotauro Nogueira def. Tim Sylvia (submission – choke) Rnd3 (UFC 81) – Our pick: Sylvia (decision)
• Frank Mir def. Brock Lesnar (submission – leg lock) Rnd1 (UFC 81) – Our pick: Mir (decision)

Upcoming Heavyweight fights currently scheduled and/or rumored include:

• Cheick Kongo vs. Heath Herring at UFC 82 (Mar. 1) – We’ll take Kongo (TKO – strikes) Rnd3
• Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake O’Brien at UFC 82 – We’ll take Arlovski (TKO – strikes) Rnd1
• Minotauro Nogueira vs. Fabricio Werdum for the HW title at a future UFC event, TBD – We’ll take Nogueira (submission) Rnd3

Your Top 15 Contenders are:

Light Heavyweights

Tito Ortiz is fed up and leaving the UFC, according to his recent interview on the “Howard Stern Show.” He’ll first have to satisfy the last fight on his contract by taking on undefeated Lyoto Machida at UFC 84 in May. As we’ve previously noted, if Ortiz is unhappy with the amount of money he’s making, he should leave, and the UFC should let him go.

It’s been a bad 11 months for Jason Lambert. After TKOing Babalu Sobral (who himself was fresh off a title shot loss to Chuck Liddell), the future was wide open for “The Punisher.” But what followed was 10 months with nary a word from his camp. During those same 10 months, the UFC signed every LHW stud in the galaxy, including Wanderlei Silva, Shogun Rua, Thiago Silva, Houston Alexander, Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou and Chewbacca. Seriously. Not to mention, Rampage Jackson, who had just made his debut 11 months ago, was about to win and then defend the belt. Wow, what a year. All these acquisitions dropped Lambert’s stock considerably. Once at #4 in the SteelSkins Power Rankings, we doubt Lambert will ever break the Top 10 again, unless he drops to Middleweight. It doesn’t help that when he finally made his return at last month’s UFC 80, he might have gotten a little cocky while beating the tar out of Wilson Gouveia and dropped his hands. Gouveia, known for submissions rather than heavy hands, saw an opening and knocked “The Punisher” out silly. We said it before, and we’ll say it again, so much for missed opportunities.

Our record for picking Light Heavyweight fights would have been a perfect 3-0, so long as you allow us Tim Boetsch as a late replacement for Tomasz Drwal, who was forced out with a last-minute injury. We’ll take 2-0 with 1 no show. Kudos to Tim Boetsch for keeping it real.

As for David Heath, Boetsch’s unfortunate opponent, he failed to capitalize on the one thing he had over Boetsch: he’s a veteran of the big show. Instead Heath allowed Boetsch (who took the fight on 10 days notice) to get comfortable in the Octagon and never pressed the action in the, albeit brief, fight. With three losses in a row, Heath is likely done in the UFC.

Here are the recent fights, along with our picks:

• Wilson Gouveia def. Jason Lambert (KO) Rnd2 (UFC 80) – Our pick: Gouveia (submission) Rnd3
• Alessio Sakara def. James Lee (TKO) Rnd1 (UFC 80) – Our pick: Sakara (decision)
• Tim Boetsch def. David Heath (TKO – strikes) Rnd1 (UFC81) – Our pick was Tomasz Drwal to beat Heath (KO Rnd2), but Boetsch was a last-minute replacement for the injured Drwal.

Upcoming Light Heavyweight fights currently scheduled and/or rumored include:

• Houston Alexander vs. #17 James Irvin at UFC 83 (Mar. 8) – We’ll take Alexander (TKO – strikes) Rnd1
• Matt Hamill vs. Stephen Bonnar at Fight Night 13 (April 2) – We’ll take Hamill (decision)
• Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida at UFC 84 (May 3) – We’ll take Machida (decision)
• Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva at UFC 84 – We’ll take Silva (submission) Rnd2
• Wilson Gouveia vs. #24 Goran Reljic at UFC 84 – We’ll take Reljic (submission) Rnd2
• Keith Jardine vs. TBD at UFC 84
• Chuck Liddell vs. Shogun Rua at UFC 85 (June 14) – We’ll take Liddell (TKO – strikes) Rnd2
• Champion Rampage Jackson vs. Forrest Griffin after TUF7 Finale (scheduled for June 21) – Call us crazy, but we’ll take Griffin (decision)

Your Top 15 Contenders are:

Middleweights

There were some decent Middleweight fights over the last two months, although the best is yet to come. The two largest upsets were Jorge Rivera over Kendall Grove and Marvin Eastman over Terry Martin. Grove isn’t the first TUF Champion to lose back-to-back fights (TUF1 Champ Diego Sanchez is coming off back-to-back losses to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch), but the quality of Grove’s competition is no where close to that of Sanchez, which drops Grove out of the Top 15 to a lowly #21 spot.

While the Terry Martin bandwagon seemed to be in full motion, following his back-to-back TKOs of Jorge Rivera and Ivan Salaverry when he dropped to Middleweight, that bandwagon has been hijacked and sent careening over a cliff, thanks to a unanimous decision loss to Marvin Eastman, Martin’s second loss in a row. Martin is now a dismal 2-4 in the UFC (2-2 as a MW), and likely cannot drop anymore weight. He’ll have to climb back up the ranks the old fashioned way, by earning it, although his UFC days might be numbered.

Ricardo Almeida dodged a bullet by having his original opponent, Alan Belcher, pull out at the last minute due to injury. Almeida was making his return after a three-year layoff from the sport, and Belcher was going to be a tough opponent to try to shake off the cage rust. Almeida fought Rob Yundt instead, an Alaska Fighting Championship veteran, and won easily. This makes his claim to the Top 5 a little more plausible.

Finally, the once-promising rise of Martin Kampmann seems to be coming to a close. His prolonged knee injury with no mention of a return has already dropped him from #4. Rather than dropping him anymore, we’re going to wait for his 1-year-with-no-action anniversary to come next month, when he’ll be dropped from the Power Rankings entirely, unless we hear of an upcoming fight.

Our record for picking Middleweight fights these last two months was 2-2, although it would have been 3-2, had we known Yundt was going to be a late replacement for an injured Alan Belcher. We’ll call it a no show. Here are the recent fights, along with our picks:

• #25 Jorge Rivera def. Kendall Grove (TKO – strikes) Rnd1 at UFC 80 – Our pick: Grove (submission) Rnd2
• Nate Marquardt def. Jeremy Horn (submission – choke) Rnd2 at UFC 81 – Our pick: Marquardt (decision)
• Richardo Almeida def. #33 Rob Yundt (a late replacement for Alan Belcher) via submission (choke) Rnd1 at UFC 81 – Our pick: Belcher (submission) Rnd2
• Patrick Cote def. #28 Drew McFedries (TKO – strikes) Rnd1 at UFC 81 – Our pick: Cote (TKO – strikes) Rnd3
• Marvin Eastman def. Terry Martin (unanimous decision) at UFC 81 – Our pick: Martin (decision)

Upcoming Middleweight fights currently scheduled and/or rumored include:

• Champ Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson at UFC 82 to unify the UFC and PRIDE MW titles (Mar. 1) – We’ll take Silva (TKO – strikes) Rnd4
• Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner at UFC 82 – We’ll take Tanner (submission) Rnd3
• Chris Leben vs. #23 Alessio Sakara at UFC 82 – We’ll take Leben (TKO – strikes) Rnd2
• Former Champ Rich Franklin vs. Travis Lutter at UFC 83 (Mar. 8) – We’ll take Franklin (decision)
• Michael Bisping vs. #32 Charles McCarthy at UFC 83 – We’ll take Bisping (KO) Rnd2
• Nate Quarry vs. #31 Kalib Starnes at UFC 83 – We’ll take Quarry (TKO – strikes) Rnd3
• Ed Herman vs. #18 Demian Maia at UFC 83 – We’ll take Herman (submission) Rnd1
• Patrick Cote vs. #22 Alan Belcher at UFC 83 – We’ll take Herman (submission) Rnd2
• Jason MacDonald vs. #29 Joe Doerksen at UFC 84 (May 3) – This is a rematch from 2005 when MacDonald won via rear naked choke. We’ll take MacDonald (submission) Rnd2
• #25 UFC newcomer Rousimar Palhares vs. #28 Ivan Salaverry at UFC 84 – We’ll take Salaverry (submission) Rnd2

Your Top 15 Contenders are:

Welterweights

There’s not much to say about the Welterweights, other than a there’s a lot of action coming up in March and April. And that Swick/Burkman failed to live up to its headliner status. But you can say this: Let’s start talking about Marcus Davis as a Top 5 Contender. An 11-fight win streak doesn’t like to argue.

We know that if GSP beats Serra at UFC 83 (Apr. 19), there’s an extremely strong likelihood that Hughes/Serra and GSP/Fitch will soon follow. But what happens if Serra beats GSP? Fitch still gets a title shot, but what else? Don’t be surprised to see GSP/Karo or GSP/Davis.

Our record for picking Welterweight fights was 3 – 1. Here are the recent fights, along with our picks:

• Marcus Davis def. #25 Jess Liaudin (TKO – strikes) Rnd 1 at UFC 80 – Our pick: Davis (submission) Rnd1
• #34 Paul Kelly def. #24 Paul Taylor (unanimous decision) at UFC 80 – Our pick: Taylor (TKO – strikes) Rnd2
• Mike Swick def. Josh Burkman (split decision) at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Swick (decision)
• Chris Lytle def. #26 Kyle Bradley (TKO – strikes) Rnd1 at UFC 81 – Our pick: Lytle (KO)

Upcoming Welterweight fights currently scheduled and/or rumored include:

• Jon Fitch vs. Akihiro Gono at UFC 82 (March 1) – We’ll take Fitch (submission) Rnd2
• Josh Koscheck vs. Dustin Hazelett at UFC 82 – We’ll take Kos (submission) Rnd3
• Luke Cummo vs. #17 Luigi Fioravanti at UFC 82 – We’ll take Cummo (guillotine choke) Rnd2
• #16 Tommy Spear vs. #40 Anthony Johnson at Fight Night 13 (April 2) – We’ll take Spear (TKO – strikes) Rnd2
• Champ Matt Serra vs. GSP at UFC 84 (April 19) – We’ll take GSP (TKO – strikes) Rnd3
• Karo Parisyan vs. Thiago Alves at UFC 84 – We’ll take Alves (split decision)
• The extremely dangerous BJJ black belt (but low ranked because of his 5-3 record and history of backing out of fights due to training injuries) #46 Jeff Joslin vs. TBD at UFC 84.

Your Top 15 Contenders are:

Lightweights

We saw a ton of Lightweight action since our last Power Rankings update. B.J. Penn defeated Joe “Daddy” Stevenson for the vacant LW title on January 19 and now faces Sherk probably at UFC 85 in May. There’s no love lost between these two champions, and it should be an exciting fight, no matter where the action goes.

Most of the Lightweight fights happened the way they were expected. Our record for picking the Lightweights was a stellar 10 – 1, with our only loss being a close split decision (Emerson/Nakamura). Here are the recent fights, along with our picks:

• B.J. Penn def. Joe Stevenson (submission – rear naked choke) Rnd2 at UFC 80 (Jan. 19) – Our pick: Penn (submission) Rnd3
• #20 Sam Stout def. #32 Per Eklund (unanimous decision) at UFC 80 – Our pick: Stout (KO) Rnd3
• #44 Corey Hill def. #55 Joe Veres (TKO – strikes) Rnd2 at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Hill (submission) Rnd2
• Thiago Tavares def. #53 Michihiro Omigawa (unanimous decision) at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Tavares (submission) Rnd1
• Kurt Pellegrino def. #31 Alberto Crane (TKO – strikes) Rnd2 at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Pellegrino (submission) Rnd2
• Nate Diaz def. #21 Alvin Robinson (submission – triangle choke) Rnd1 at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Diaz (submission) Rnd2
• #22 Jeremy Stephens def. #30 Cole Miller (TKO – strikes) Rnd2 at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Stephens (TKO – strikes) Rnd3
• #29 Gray Maynard def. #26 Dennis Siver (unanimous decision) at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Maynard (decision)
• #33 Matt Wiman def #40 Justin Buchholz (submission – read naked choke) Rnd1 at Fight Night 12 – Our pick: Wiman (decision)
• Tyson Griffin def. #16 Gleison Tibau (unanimous decision) at UFC 81 (Feb. 2) – Our pick: Griffin (decision)
• #38 Rob Emerson def. #42 Keita Nakamura (split decision) at UFC 81 – Our pick: Nakamura

Upcoming Welterweight fights currently scheduled and/or rumored include:

• #23 Jorge Gurgel vs. #35 John Halverson at UFC 82 (Mar. 1) – We’ll take Gurgel (submission) Rnd3
• Kenny Florian vs. Joe Lauzon at Fight Night 13 (April 2) – We’ll take Florian (submission) Rnd2
• Spencer Fisher vs. Marcus Aurelio at Fight Night 13 – We’ll take Fisher (decision)
• Champion Penn vs. former Champ Sean Sherk at UFC 85 – We’ll take Penn (submission) Rnd3

Your Top 15 Contenders are: